It is that time of year again folks: Time for me to pretend like I know what I am talking about when it comes to movies and give you my take on the Oscars. While not exactly an A+ year at the movies, there was plenty to love for everyone. I am cautiously optimistic about this years broadcast, as well. I think they are finally going to focus on their core audience instead of trying to broadly appeal to an audience that will never tune in. But as a fair warning, if they bring out DJ Khaled again this year I may very well drive down to LA, crash the party, and slap the shit out of someone on stage.
As always, I give my perspective on what I think should win, what will win, and what should have been nominated. Enjoy!
Best Actor
Should Win – Colin Farrell for Banshees of Inisherin
Colin Farrell is a criminally underrated actor. From The Batman to After Yang to his coup de grace in Banshees, he probably had the best year in Hollywood (though Mia Goth may have something to say about that). What he is asked to do in Banshees is subtle and complex. He needs to be funny, kind, fragile, dull, hurt, confused, and angry all in one. The movie doesn’t work without him bringing his full charm to the table. He is entirely believable as a local townie who just wants to grab a pint with his friend. His speech about kindness and wanting to be known as a kind person is one of the most raw moments of the year. One day, Colin Farrell will get his Oscar. I just don’t think it is this year. The Academy should recognize Banshees here, as he gives the best performance of the year (at least of those nominated). But I don’t think they will. They rarely do when it comes to Best Actor.
Will Win – Austin Butler for Elvis
The front runner right now is Brendan Fraser for his performance in The Whale, but I think that is a stale narrative. The Whale wasn’t really recognized anywhere else by the Academy, and this could be where they try to give the feel good story some run. But I think this is Austin Butler’s award to lose. He is a budding super duper movie star. He gave a very typical performance that the Academy loves to recognize: a loud, boisterous transformation of an uber famous person, also with some singing to boot. Old people love Elvis. Young people love Austin Butler. Feels like the perfect mix for an upset.
Should Have Been Nominated – Alexander Skarsgård for The Northman
Alexander Skarsgård, the King of Genre. I am ecstatic that he continues to lean into all the gorier, nastier, funkier fare. I am a huge fan of Robert Eggers movies, and The Northman did not disappoint. This Shakespearean revenge tale dials up the trippiness to an eleven, and the engine doesn’t run without Skarsgård shoveling the coal. He is effervescent in the role, enthusiastically embodying a Viking prince looking to, for lack of a better term, fuck some shit up. His raw emotion, bloodlust, and sorrow are ever present on screen. I hope he continues to roll in the mud of genre storytelling, because he might be the best in the biz at it.
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win – Key Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoiler alert for the future of this article: Everything Everywhere All at Once was my favorite movie of the year. And I think Key Huy Quan was my favorite part of the movie. As much as the movie is about a mother and a daughter seeing eye to eye and meaningfully connecting on an emotional level, it is equally a story about actively choosing love. This movie absolutely doesn’t work without Key Huy Quan exuding kindness, understanding, and joy. I bawl, like ugly sob, every time I watch the “In another life, I would have really liked just doing laundry and taxes with you” scene. He has incredible chemistry with everyone on screen and brings an emotional core to the story that wouldn’t work without him. Please give this man more movies to act in.
Will Win – Key Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once
See above. He also has won pretty much all the precursors, most notably the Screen Actors Guild award, the Golden Globe, and the Independent Spirit Award. A Screen Actors Guild win has about a 75% chance to carry over to the Oscars. I think this is basically a lock.
Should Have Been Nominated – Justin Long for Barbarian
One day the Academy will recognize horror as Oscar worthy. (Note to reader: the last movie that swept the big five awards was Silence of the Lambs. Why does that get a pass but no other horror does? Beats me.) And when that day comes, they will give Justin Long a lifetime achievement award as everyone’s favorite Scream King. I don’t want to ruin Barbarian for you if you haven’t seen it. In fact, the less you know, the better. Just know it was one of my favorite movie going experiences in a long time. The second Justin Long comes on screen, the movie transcends into something truly great and hilarious. If you know, you know.
Best Actress
Should Win – Cate Blanchett for Tár
I feel bad for Michelle Yeoh. In most other years, I think she would be a shoe in to win. But not this year. Cate Blanchett gives a titanic performance as fictional conductor Lydia Tár. This is one of the best performances I have seen in years. She is menacing, controlling, manic, manipulative, egotistical, and narcissistic. She totally transforms, and you forget that you are watching Cate Blanchett cook. She makes you respect her, hate her, and fear her at will throughout the movie. This is a Mount Rushmore level performance from one of the best actors in the world.
Will Win – Cate Blanchett for Tár
I think Cate Blanchett still has the edge here, though she didn’t win the Screen Actors Guild prize, which is a little surprising. It is a close race between her and Michelle Yeoh and I won’t be mad if Michelle Yeoh wins. She was phenomenal and is deserving of recognition after a storied career. Everything Everywhere All at Once doesn’t work without her at the center of it all. Her physicality, comedic timing, grace, and unflinching mom-ness make the engine hum. In any other year, Michelle Yeoh wins in a landslide. She is so important to so many people. But I think she unfortunately ran into a buzz saw in Cate Blanchett this year.
Should Have Been Nominated – Viola Davis for The Woman King
It is an absolute shame that The Woman King wasn’t recognized this year by the Academy. It was an old school war epic headlined by a mega star and now EGOT winner in Viola Davis, with compelling characters, an emotional storyline, high production value, and a clarity in shooting action scenes that we don’t often see anymore. Viola Davis puts in another stellar performance as the leader of the Agojie, bringing a sense of presence that few others can match. She is also an Academy darling, which makes this even more surprising. The Angela Riseborough saga was unfortunate for a lot of reasons, this being the primary. This movie isn’t perfect, and comes with its fair share of controversy, but Viola deserved better here.
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win – Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once
I am obviously in the bag for this movie, and I don’t think the movie works without Stephanie Hsu. She is able to fluctuate between an all-powerful, nihilistic, metaverse jumping demon to a daughter that just wants her mom to accept and love her. She is funny, frantic, physical, mournful, and sad. She helps hold the emotional core together and is asked to do a lot. She is able to deliver exposition and explain a move in a way that would fail in less capable hands. I am looking forward to what she does in the future.
Will Win – Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
I think this has basically been a foregone conclusion for most of the race and feels like one of those inevitabilities that we all just accept. Her performance is solid in the new Black Panther, but I feel like this will be more of a lifetime achievement award that the Academy likes to give out so often in the acting categories. Our great actors very rarely get recognized for their best performance. They usually get recognized for a pretty good performance once the Academy feels they have earned their chops. This year feels like Angela’s turn. It is kind of a bummer, but I’m not sweating it too much.
Should Have Been Nominated – Lashana Lynch for The Woman King
My long-term prediction: Lashana Lynch is going to be a star. In many ways, she steals the movie. Every second that she is on screen is captivating and you can’t your eyes off of her. Whatever “it” is, she has it. I hope she gets a cascade of leading parts after this performance.
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win – Tár
While Kate Blanchett carries the load here, she couldn’t cook without the sous chef in the kitchen i.e. the script. The fact that this movie can feel propulsive, eerie, and unnerving is a testament to the careful details that went into its structure. The dialogue, the dream like quality, the posing of questions without directly answering them comes from a deft hand. It won’t win, and luckily I think Blanchet will win for actress so it will be recognized, but this would be a good runner up prize for Todd Field.
Will Win – Banshees of Inisherin
I don’t think Banshees has enough juice to make a push for Best Picture, though crazier things have happened. I also think Collin Ferrell gets shut out of the Best Actor prize. But I am confident they will find a way to let people know how great this movie is by recognizing it in at least one of the major categories. Making a movie like this is hard. Layering it with metaphors and subtext on toxic masculinity, the fragility of the male ego, and the pointlessness of war is even harder. All hail Banshees.
Should Have Been Nominated – Decision to Leave
I am mostly using the “should have been nominated” category to talk about movies I liked. Park Chan-Wook’s Decision to Leave was a surprise for me this year. He is a known master, and while I am aware of their quality and cultural significance, I haven’t had the opportunity to check out his classics yet. But I am glad I checked this one out. A stylish neo-noir romance that harkens back to the days of Maltese Falcon or Chinatown, Decision to Leave follows a hard working police detective and a mysterious women accused of murder. I was mesmerized through and through, especially by the captivating lead performances. I wish it was more broadly recognized by the Academy and the movie-going public as a whole. This is simply a way for me to say, go watch this movie. Now time for me to go watch Oldboy and The Handmaiden.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win – Women Talking
I think this is a relatively weak category this year. I liked Women Talking but didn’t love it. Something about the disconnect between the vocabulary used and arguments made vs. what we were supposed to believe about the women and their lives. It was also extremely drab visually, which was an intentional choice, but a harder one to swallow. But the writing was fantastic and its ability to keep you interested with essentially one setting and 0 action is admirable. It will be a worthy winner.
Will Win – Women Talking
Don’t think this is a slam dunk to win, but I think it will.
Should Have Been Nominated – Pearl
Let’s get the easy part out first: Mia Goth is a national treasure, and we should protect her at all costs. Her run of X, Pearl, and Infinity Pool is truly remarkable. Her ability to fluctuate between sultry, unhinged, innocent, and back to sexy is uncanny. I preferred X to Pearl as a pure theatrical experience, but there is no denying the script in Pearl. Ti West and Mia Goth built a world that unlocked a tour de force performance in Goth. The methodical rise to mania and murder was well worth the price of admission.
Best Director
Should Win – Todd Field for Tár
Tár is such an exacting and specific movie, that people believe Lydia Tár is a real person. Every detail feels thought through. Every shot intentional. Todd Field controls the pace and structure of the story masterfully. He makes even the banal, like picking out a new suit, seem important. I think the most impressive thing he does in Tar is not give the audience any answers. He just poses the questions and lets people fill in the blanks.
Will Win – Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans
The Fabelmans is a deep, personal look at arguably the most important director of the last 50 years. Spielberg puts everything on the table here in an unflinching look at this life growing up. The marketing of this movie really let it down, portraying it as a whimsical and lighthearted coming of age story. But there is venom in Spielberg’s fangs here, and there’s a reason he waited until his parents died until he made this movie. I won’t be mad when Spielberg wins. This is a deserving performance from a director who should have more than two Best Director wins.
Should Have Been Nominated – Zach Cregger for Barbarian
This would obviously never happen in a million years, because the Academy continually disrespects horror movies, but this would have been deserving. The way Cregger holds the tension until 45 minutes into the movie, then lets it explode in the most hilarious way, is astounding. This movie rocks. Go watch it.
Best Picture
Should Win – Everything Everywhere All At Once
In a lot of ways, this movie is entirely groundbreaking as a Best Picture front runner. A majority Asian cast. High concept science fiction. Metaverse traveling. Major use of dildos. But in a lot of ways, it is also extremely traditional. It’s a story about generational trauma. A mother trying to right her wrongs. A story about family connecting and figuring out how to belong. I was absolutely flabbergasted when I saw this in theaters early last year. I laughed. I cried (a lot). I told every single person I know to see it immediately and to go in totally blind. At one point, I had a coworker tell me that I should be collecting royalties since I got so many people to see it. The biggest sign it should win? My partner couldn’t stop crying 30 minutes after the movie ended. Now that’s a movie.
Will Win – Everything Everywhere All At Once
I don’t want to jinx it, but everything is pointing to this being an inevitability. The Oscars always tend to surprise, but it has won every major prize that serves as a bellwether for the big event. Fingers crossed this holds.
Should Have Been Nominated – Nope
I genuinely do not understand why Nope wasn’t a bigger movie. Celebrated filmmaker in Jordan Peele? Check. One of the best actors working in Daniel Kaluya? Check. Charming lead actress in Keke Palmer? Check. Interesting, high concept genre story? Check. It is such a bummer. I loved Nope and everything it was trying to say. It’s a movie that demands multiple viewings. I wrote more about it here. Just go see it.
Finally, a quick personal rank of the Best Picture nominees:
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Tár
- The Fabalmans
- Top Gun: Maverick
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Triangle of Sadness
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Women Talking
- Elvis (This movie is not very good)
Now please. Go to the movies.
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