Parnham’s back. Back again. Parnham’s back. Tell a friend. It is time for the 2026 Parnacademy awards! With the Oscar’s coming up next week, it is time the world finally got the movie answer it has been looking for all year: who does James think is going to win Best Screenplay!? I kid I kid. 2025 was an excellent year in movies. And somehow the Oscar’s didn’t fuck it up yet and actually nominated a really solid slate of movies (except I demand justice for Weapons and No Other Choice). As usual, below I will talk about who will win, who should win, and who I think should have been nominated. Let’s get started, shall we?
Best Actor
Should Win – Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another
This is an amazing slate of lead performances this year. Everyone nominated will be well deserving and the race is WIDE open. I have a feeling if Leo actually cared, and hadn’t already won his golden statue, he would be campaigning HARD for this. But he isn’t, so he likely won’t win. But his performance in One Battle After Another is really something special. It is subtle. It is funny. It is tragic. It is propulsive. Leo does an amazingly subtle job of giving Bob character with small choices along the way. The cadence in the way he speaks. How he reacts under pressure. And to top it all off? We get girl dad Leo! Something I thought wouldn’t work, but absolutely does. This is a true masterclass performance by one of our greats.
Will Win – Michael B. Jordan for Sinners
This race is WIDE open. Michael B. Jordan’s win at SAG really turned everything on its head. There is clearly a tremendous amount of love for Sinners in the Academy this year and Jordan is a long time industry veteran giving a really good performance as both Smoke and Stack. I think his speech at the SAG awards, while voting was still open, gives him the upper hand here. But don’t be surprised if Timothee pulls it off instead.
Should Have Been Nominated – Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice
Why does the Academy hate Park Chan-wook? I truly don’t get it. Lee Byung-hun is stunning in this movie. His range, from bumbling, nervous assassin, to cold blooded killer, to angry husband is mesmerizing. He is funny, scared, angry, and joyous all in one. It is a shame he and this movie aren’t recognized.
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win – Benecio Del Toro for One Battle After Another
This is by far the best performance in this category for me. Benecio Del Toro breathes life into this character every moment he is on screen. The world feels real. Lived in. In just a few scenes, he absolutely steals the show in a movie filled with great performances. He has the best lines (“Just a few small beers”) and is the most interesting character. He reportedly helped craft the character with Paul Thomas Anderson when he came on set. It shows. Also its freaking Benecio Del Toro. Please give this man another Oscar!
Will Win – Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
Penn is clearly channeling George C. Scott in Dr. Strangelove and it totally works. He gives a very memorable and showy performance, which the Academy often rewards. He is also one of our great actors and this will be well deserved. I just wish he gave a shit about it.
Should Have Been Nominated – Miles Caton for Sinners
Talking about coming out of nowhere. But I am not sure this movie works with anyone else at the center. Just for the juke joint dance alone, he should be nominated.
Best Actress
Should Win – Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
No other way to put this – Jessie Buckley is astounding in this movie. The second I walked out of Hamnet I turned to my wife and said “just give her the Oscar already.” I know this movie has some detractors, but I thought it was entirely emotionally resonant and Jessie was the center of that. She is quickly rising in the ranks of “best actors on the planet” and I can’t wait to see what she does next.
Will Win – Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
This is the biggest slam dunk of the night. But shout out to Rose Byrne. Any other year and this would have been yours.
Should Have Been Nominated – Amanda Seyfried for The Testamant of Ann Lee
I honestly have no idea how this didn’t happen. I understand the movie being divisive, but she is transcendent. She has to do it all – sing, agonize, proselytize, dance. It is a phsyically and emotionally demanding performance that she nails. Why this wasn’t recognized is beyond me.
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win – Amy Madigan for Weapons
Aunt Gladys will definitely go down as the most memorable character of the year for me. Amy Madigan does such an amazing job of being menacing, while also fake nice and kind of charming, while also totally fucking bonkers. This isn’t a typical Oscar type role, but she is so magnetic in the performance. She has a shot at winning and I think it would be a super cool way to recognize one of my favorite movies of the year. The performance is showy and Madigan is well liked. Who says it can’t happen!?
Will Win – Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another
This is another hard one to predict, as it feels pretty wide open. Taylor’s performance in this movie is definitely controversial, but the Academy clearly loved One Battle After Another. I could see this as another opportunity to recognize the movie in a pretty wide open race. I found her depiction of Perfidia Beverly Hills to be electric and complicated and think this win would be totally deserved.
Should Have Been Nominated – Mariam Afshari for It Was Just an Accident
I really don’t understand the Academy not recognizing this movie more broadly. Afshari’s performance is so subtle, so real, you often forget that she’s acting. It is truly immersive and grounding, just like Panahi’s movies. She helps carry that burden on her shoulders in a spectacular way.
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win – Ryan Coogler for Sinnners
This is everything you want from a great screenplay – a super original idea, grounded characters, a world that feels real, and a feeling of propulsion. Mash that together with a genre bending period piece and you have magic. Ryan Coogler is an incredible writer. He deserves this.
Will Win – Ryan Coogler Sinners
Also a pretty obvious slam dunk. Great way to get him on stage early in the show.
Should Have Been Nominated – Weapons
JUSTICE FOR ZACH CREGGER AND WEAPONS. Like what are we even doing here? How is this movie not nominated??????
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win – One Battler After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson is considered a master for a reason. His worlds always feel so alive, so lived in, so real. This script is filled with complex, flawed, and interesting characters. It is propulsive. It is subtle and complex. It is funny. It is emotionally devastating. And it takes the framework of a novel that was published over 30 years ago and takes its themes and makes them feel as relevant to today as they did to 1990.
Will Win – One Battler After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated 11 times for an Academy Award. He has won 0. What is this world? What have they done to us?
Should Have Been Nominated – No Other Choice
WHY DOES THE ACADEMY HATE PARK CHAN-WOOK!?!?!?!?!?!
Best Director
Should Win – Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Gets incredible performances out of all of his actors? Check. Creates a propulsive thriller for 3 hours? Check. Gets the best out of every single one of the crafts-people? Check. Creates a new way to visualize a car chase? Check. Has subtle master shots of filmmaking? Check.
Will Win – Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Lock it in. Coogler would also be amazing here and a totally deserved win. But I think it is PTA’s time, finally. We’ll see you next time, Coogs.
Should Have Been Nominated –Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice
This may be controversial. But this may be Park’s best movie. This or Oldboy. But it might be this? I don’t know. Fire the Academy voters.
Best Picture
Should Win – One Battle After Another
This is a toss up between One Battle and Sinners for me. They were my two favorite movies of the year. The only two movies I gave 5 stars. Two of my favorite directors. And the movies are in direct conversation with each other about the history of America, the history of racism, the histoy of fascism. Both are spectacular movies that will stand the test of time. But if I had to pick one movie, I think I am picking One Battle After Another in the slightest of edges. I actually think this is the better outcome for history as well. Sinners will be discussed forever as the most nominated movie ever and people will continually ask “How did this movie not win!?” It will only grow in reputation with a loss. One Battle After Another will continue to resonate as a classic that will be just as relevant in 2050 as it was in 2025. Also, justice for There Will Be Blood.
Will Win – One Battle After Another
I am super intrigued to see how this shakes out. One Battle After Another has gone on a dominant run in the precursors. But it hasn’t won everything, and Sinners still has a major shot here. We may have an inkling early in the night where this will lead. Does Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress? Does Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor? If either of those happen, this race is officially on! But I think at the end of the day, One Battle After Another carries this home and we finally get Paul Thomas Anderson that Best Picture win he so deserves.
Should Have Been Nominated – Weapons
Justice for Weapons. Please. My mom even liked it, and she hates horror movies!
Finally, a quick personal rank of the Best Picture nominees:
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- Sentimental Value
- Bugonia
- F1
- The Secret Agent
- Train Dreams
- Frankenstein (this movie is not very good!)
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